Probability Theory

Bayes Theorem

Update beliefs with evidence

P(H) — Prior Probability

P(E|H) — Likelihood

P(E|¬H) — False Positive Rate

P(H|E) — Posterior

16.7%

P(H|E) = P(E|H) × P(H) / [P(E|H) × P(H) + P(E|¬H) × P(¬H)]